A scientific model has hinted that society will collapse by the year 2040 as a result of ruinous food shortages if regulations do not change.
“We ran the model forward to the year 2040, along a business-as-usual trajectory based on ‘do-nothing’ trends — that is, without any feedback loops that would change the underlying trend,” Dr. Aled Jones, the Director of the Global Sustainability Institute, spoke to Insurge Intelligence.
“The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots.” Jones continues, “In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption.”
The model — formulated by a team at Anglia Ruskin University’s Global Sustainability Institute — does not account for society reacting to heightening crises by altering global policies and behavior. However, the model does reveal that our present way of life appears to be unmanageable and could have significant worldwide consequences.
The model follows a report that states: “The global food system is under chronic pressure to meet an ever-rising demand, and its vulnerability to acute disruptions is compounded by factors such as climate change, water stress, ongoing globalization and heightening political instability.
“A global production shock of the kind set out in this scenario would be expected to generate major economic and political impacts that could affect clients across a very wide spectrum of insurance classes. This analysis has presented the initial findings for some of the key risk exposures. “Global demand for food is on the rise, driven by unprecedented growth in the world’s population and widespread shifts in consumption patterns as countries develop.”